Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 19.908278 21.582023 23.384712 25.479843 27.859585 30.492470 33.645049
2025-09-28 17.788587 20.193990 22.969415 26.448269 30.749844 35.973673 42.924890
2025-10-05 15.753520 18.490391 21.812944 26.226710 32.069895 39.747676 50.980618
2025-10-12 14.345491 17.292428 21.020627 26.220311 33.524847 43.834842 60.355725
2025-10-19 13.363196 16.476578 20.557479 26.499176 35.310673 48.622519 71.989521
2025-10-26 12.424456 15.596858 19.875328 26.329045 36.348940 52.417196 83.100222
2025-11-02 11.621286 14.811391 19.219409 26.075977 37.164636 55.949291 94.851308
2025-11-09 10.998196 14.212783 18.755087 26.027088 38.257027 60.130100 109.404680
2025-11-16 10.421997 13.629284 18.249795 25.836703 39.052322 63.903188 124.639374
2025-11-23 9.911031 13.099077 17.772225 25.624308 39.754343 67.623941 141.506019
2025-11-30 9.456009 12.617744 17.325906 25.406184 40.396796 71.351835 160.408516
2025-12-07 9.079885 12.228104 16.988331 25.329691 41.282955 75.811954 184.284719
2025-12-14 8.678007 11.783046 16.542524 25.040839 41.755144 79.570031 209.171470
2025-12-21 8.550356 11.750224 16.754988 25.946418 44.812546 90.582754 272.202942
2025-12-28 8.213399 11.370527 16.370124 25.714687 45.423045 95.479657 315.705911
2026-01-04 7.943889 11.081913 16.116145 25.701518 46.515184 102.117524 378.231990
2026-01-11 7.743935 10.892516 16.015231 25.969352 48.297226 111.508669 476.256366
2026-01-18 7.486654 10.596415 15.710200 25.802857 49.020968 117.880551 570.422320
2026-01-25 7.235143 10.297374 15.381214 25.556556 49.511698 123.718763 679.703109
2026-02-01 7.031412 10.067315 15.159598 25.508846 50.502607 131.841672 847.766411
2026-02-08 6.820604 9.815735 14.884474 25.323843 51.108596 138.852986 1044.587207
2026-02-15 6.619952 9.572482 14.610670 25.117501 51.629249 145.854735 1298.642995
2026-02-22 6.430597 9.340460 14.344789 24.905596 52.106508 153.007637 1637.507544